Anticipating 2026: 10 trends reshaping the energy landscape

After several years of successive crises—health, geopolitical, energy—the energy sector is expected to enter a new phase in 2026: one of restructuring. These shocks have acted as a wake-up call, exposing excessive dependencies, structural rigidities, industrial vulnerabilities, but also competitive strengths that were sometimes underestimated.

In this context, 2026 is unlikely to mark a sudden break, but rather a tipping point: the main directions are now clear, trajectories have been sketched out, and trade-offs are becoming tangible. Energy mix, flexibility, infrastructure, technologies, sovereignty—the decisions taken today will shape the long-term competitiveness and resilience of French and European energy systems.

Here are ten structural trends shaping the energy landscape towards 2026. They are not intended as an exact science, but as forward-looking insights and weak signals observable today, helping to shed light on the sector’s likely trajectories in the months ahead.

Trend 1

A low-carbon mix as a strategic asset in an unstable world

Renewable sources generated over half (50.8%) of the UK’s electricity in 2024 (open in a new tab), marking a decisive shift towards more clean energy. The result of sustained investment in wind, solar, and bioenergy, this evolving mix is becoming a central lever for energy sovereignty, industrial attractiveness, and economic competitiveness.

As electrification of industry, mobility, and heating, accelerates, having abundant, controllable, and decarbonized electricity becomes a decisive factor for attracting industrial projects, securing the climate transition, and preserving the competitiveness of the production base.

This brings more predictable costs, stronger protection against external shocks, and supports the UK’s efforts to link decarbonisation with industrial revival. But fully realising this advantage will depend on consistent industrial policy, an adapted market framework, and a clear long‑term direction.

By 2026, this low‑carbon strength is no longer simply an environmental asset; it has become a geopolitical and economic one. With global energy markets fracturing, fossil‑fuel tensions persisting, and competition intensifying to attract energy‑hungry industries such as hydrogen, chemicals, data centres and batteries, the UK’s rapidly growing renewable and low‑carbon mix, supplying nearly 65% of electricity in 2024, now stands as a genuine strategic advantage.

Trend 2

Electricity prices and volatility: flexibility as the new norm

With wholesale prices normalising, yet remaining volatile, and with the number of negative‑price hours rising to 112 in the second quarter of 2025, compared with 106 a year earlier, the UK power system is entering a new phase shaped by strong renewable output and shifts in demand patterns.

In the context of fluctuating wholesale markets and growing pressure on system flexibility, the value of electricity lies as much in the ability to adjust as in the ability to produce. Demand response, storage, flexible load management and dynamic contracting are becoming essential components of competitiveness. Players capable of mobilizing physical flexibility supported by digital tools will be at an advantage, while traditional, inflexible models face a gradual erosion of load factors and margins.

These developments challenge established business models. Non‑flexible generation assets are increasingly exposed to reduced utilization, and value is shifting toward resources that can respond in real time to market signals. For suppliers and industrial consumers, active consumption management is becoming a genuine lever of performance rather than a secondary operational adjustment.

Digital technologies reinforce this shift. Advances in forecasting, artificial intelligence and integrated control platforms now make it possible to coordinate large volumes of distributed flexibility. By 2026, flexibility will stand as a structural component of the UK electricity system, alongside generation and networks, requiring market and regulatory adjustments to fully unlock its potential.

Trend 3

European exchanges and infrastructure: security as a strategic priority

The UK has increasingly become a net importer of electricity, with record‑high imports in 2024, reaching 14.95 TWh (open in a new tab) between January and May alone, and projected to approach 36 TWh for the year, equivalent to around 15% of national electricity supply.

This growing reliance on interconnectors with France, Norway, Belgium and others has reinforced the strategic importance of cross‑border infrastructure. Subsea cables, interconnectors, LNG terminals and gas pipelines are now seen as critical assets exposed to a wide range of geopolitical and operational risks.
This physical vulnerability is compounded by rising cyberthreats targeting both informational and operational systems. By 2026, securing the continuity of energy flows into the UK will have become a central pillar of national energy security, as the country depends more heavily on imported electricity and gas at a time of heightened geopolitical tension and accelerating electrification.

This awareness is reshaping investment priorities. Interconnections are no longer viewed merely as tools for market optimization but as critical infrastructure to protect, duplicate, and modernize. Strengthening cross-border capacity, reinforcing maintenance of existing assets, and real-time monitoring are now strategic imperatives to ensure supply continuity.

Moreover, European governance of these infrastructures remains a key challenge. Coordination among member states, grid operators, and regulators still falls short in addressing systemic risks that are inherently transnational. In 2026, energy security can no longer be tackled solely at the national level: it requires an integrated European approach combining investments, information sharing, and joint strategies to protect critical infrastructure.

Trend 4

2026 marks a starting point for UK Energy Strategy

The Great British Energy (GBE) Strategic Plan (2025) (open in a new tab) outlines the UK’s ambition to create a publicly owned clean energy champion that accelerates domestic renewable deployment and ensures the public benefits directly from national energy resources. The plan positions GBE as a driver of economic renewal, focusing on revitalizing UK manufacturing, creating well paid regional jobs, and reducing dependence on foreign-owned energy infrastructure. Its strategic priorities centre on GBE Local community projects, onshore renewables expansion, and major investment in floating and deep water offshore technologies, aiming to build long-term UK leadership.

To succeed, GBE requires stable multi year public investment, aligned with wider national infrastructure plans such as the UK’s 10 Year Infrastructure Strategy. It must be supported by streamlined planning and regulatory reform, enabled through frameworks like the EN 1 National Policy Statement, to accelerate project delivery. Strengthening domestic supply chains—highlighted in UK energy policy reviews as crucial—will be essential for capturing economic value and avoiding reliance on external manufacturing.

Additionally, achieving GBE’s goals will require large scale workforce development, national grid upgrades, and strong community engagement to ensure a fair, publicly supported transition.

Trend 5

Nuclear: industrial revival and critical dependencies

The UK’s nuclear programme is entering a new phase, centred on completing Hinkley Point C, progressing Sizewell C, and launching a new generation of small modular reactors through government-backed investment. The sector currently provides around 15% of UK electricity, with much of the existing fleet due to retire by 2030, which has prompted a renewed commitment to rebuilding nuclear capacity as a long-term anchor of the power system.

This direction reflects a strategic choice to reinforce firm, low‑carbon generation that can support a system increasingly dominated by wind and solar.

However, the challenges are substantial. Delivering projects on time and on budget remains the central test, as delays and cost overruns have affected confidence in the sector. Skills, industrial capability, streamlined regulation and consistent policy support will determine whether the UK can expand nuclear capacity effectively. Recognising this, the government initiated a system‑wide regulatory reset in 2025 to accelerate approvals and strengthen oversight of major projects.

By 2026, nuclear is understood not as a quick remedy but as a strategic foundation that requires stable long‑term investment and governance.
Fuel-cycle resilience is also returning to the forefront. With the UK reliant on international supply chains for uranium, enrichment and fuel fabrication, securing diversified and reliable access to nuclear materials has become an increasingly important dimension of energy security. Nuclear development is therefore seen as part of a wider system vision that includes the expansion of renewables, reinforcement of the grid and rising flexibility needs. In this perspective, nuclear stands as one of the structural pillars of the UK’s future energy system, provided it is supported by a coherent industrial strategy and sustained execution discipline.

Trend 6

Renewables: scaling up amid political debate

Renewables will continue to gain ground in the UK’s energy mix, driven chiefly by wind power.
To meet the government’s objective of a predominantly clean power system by 2030, deployment must remain strong across offshore and onshore wind, solar, bioenergy and other renewable sectors. Sustained investment and accelerated grid upgrades will be essential to accommodate this rising share of variable generation.

By 2026, the challenge goes beyond installed capacity. As highlighted by National Grid’s RIIO investment plans, integrating renewables into the power system is now central: grid connections, local acceptance, intermittent generation management, and hybridization with storage are essential. The simple addition of capacity gives way to systemic optimization, where every megawatt must be coordinated with the grid and other generation sources.

This technical dimension is coupled with growing polarization in public and political debate. Issues of acceptability, supply security, and energy transition fuel contrasting positions, likely to intensify in 2026 ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Renewables thus become not only a decarbonization lever but also a major political issue, reflecting future trade-offs between territories, economics, and the energy mix.

Trend 7

Natural gas and LNG: a constrained transition energy

Gas will remain a pillar of European energy security, but its role is evolving rapidly. The UK currently relies on natural gas for roughly one third of its electricity and a significant portion of heating and industrial energy demand. In 2024 domestic production from the North Sea accounted for less than 34% of this total, making the UK heavily dependent on imports from Norway, by the US, Qatar, and others.

Despite this dependency, gas is increasingly seen as a constrained, transitioning energy source. Climate and regulatory pressures weigh on consumption, while price volatility and international competition for LNG heighten supply risks. Investments must therefore aim not to sustain structurally high demand but to ensure system resilience and flexibility: balancing power grids, complementing renewables, storage, and advanced solutions to modulate demand.

By 2026, gas value will no longer be measured solely in consumption volumes but in its ability to secure the system against production fluctuations and demand peaks. It becomes a strategic adaptability lever, essential for supporting the energy transition while limiting supply disruptions, in a context where debate over its long-term role—particularly versus hydrogen and decarbonized energies—promises to be intense.

Trend 8

Hydrogen and biomethane: from promise to industrialization

By 2026, renewable gases show mixed progress. Biomethane continues its industrialization with steadily growing volumes, driven by agricultural and industrial projects gradually achieving economic maturity. Low-carbon hydrogen, however, remains limited to initial industrial and logistics uses, hampered by high costs, underdeveloped infrastructure, and restricted availability of decarbonized electricity.
Ambitions remain high for the medium term—several gigawatts of electrolysis capacity by 2030—but technological and economic challenges now condition every advance. Most projects at final investment decision (FID) stage undergo rigorous screening, with some ambitions postponed or recalibrated based on technical robustness and expected profitability.

The UK’s energy sovereignty will depend on its ability to structure these sectors end to end, from infrastructure development to securing reliable industrial offtake. Hydrogen and biomethane are not yet large‑scale solutions; they remain strategic levers to be deployed gradually and prudently. The government’s target of up to 10 GW of low‑carbon hydrogen capacity by 2030, with at least half delivered through electrolysis, reflects both ambition and the need to prioritize technically sound and economically viable early projects. Biomethane’s role is also expanding, supported through schemes such as the Green Gas Support Scheme, with potential to supply up to 8 TWh by 2030, yet it still represents a small share of the UK’s gas mix and requires careful, sustainable scale‑up.

Trend 9

Electric mobility: now a systemic challenge

With over 1.8 million fully electric cars on the road and a rapidly growing plug‑in hybrid fleet, electric mobility (open in a new tab) in the UK is no longer a niche market. Light‑duty vehicles continue to expand quickly, supported by public policy, zero‑emission vehicle mandates and steady improvements in battery performance.
Heavy mobility, including buses, trucks and vans, is progressing more gradually, held back by higher costs, technological constraints and uneven charging infrastructure, yet it is emerging as an essential driver of the UK’s transport decarbonization pathway

By 2026, the challenge goes beyond counting vehicles or charging points. Electric mobility is now integrated into the energy system: smart charging, demand management, vehicle-to-grid storage, and coordination with renewable generation peaks are key factors. Heavy mobility, in particular, will require innovative fast-charging solutions, shared fleets, and energy hubs capable of handling very high power levels.

Success will depend on coordination among infrastructure, operators, and users, and on harmonizing light and heavy mobility needs with grid flexibility. Electric mobility thus becomes a systemic lever: contributing to decarbonization while driving a progressive overhaul of energy flow management and grid operations to anticipate growing constraints in the years ahead.

Trend 10

Technological breakthroughs: preparing for post-2030 today

The year 2026 falls within a dynamic of technological breakthroughs that will extend beyond this decade. Nuclear fusion, long-duration batteries, natural hydrogen, CO₂ capture and utilization systems, and AI applied to grids and energy management—all are emerging technologies already embedded in industrial and R&D strategies. Their development will be a key marker of long-term competitiveness and energy sovereignty.

The main challenge is not immediate maturity but the ability of stakeholders to invest and experiment now. Prototypes, pilots, and demonstrators help assess real performance, understand costs and technical constraints, and identify the most viable value chains. Every investment and research decision shapes the options available after 2030.

These technologies are also central to systemic convergence: long-duration batteries and hydrogen can enhance grid flexibility, AI can optimize infrastructure operation and investment planning, while fusion and CO₂ capture solutions could radically transform the energy mix. Their strategic relevance thus goes beyond technology alone to fit into a holistic vision of the energy system.

In 2026, preparing for post-2030 means reconciling ambition and pragmatism: investing enough to secure industrial positions, experimenting at scale to reduce uncertainties, while remaining mindful of financial, regulatory, and environmental constraints. Tomorrow’s leaders are built today—not only by developing breakthrough technologies but by embedding these innovations into robust, adaptable operational strategies.